000
WTNT44 KNHC 152032
TCDAT4
 
Tropical Depression Sean Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL192023
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2023
 
Sean continues to produce bursts of convection this afternoon to 
the south of the low-level center. An earlier scatterometer pass 
depicted that winds had weakened to 20-25 kt. Dvorak satellite 
intensity estimates continue to decrease as well with a T1.0/25 kt 
from TAFB this cycle. Using the previous scatterometer data and the 
current intensity estimate, the initial intensity remains 25 kt for 
this advisory.
 
Sean continues to be resilient and produce convective bursts from 
time to time. The dry mid-level air has not been able to fully 
suppress the convection, even though the convection is becoming less 
organized. The convective pattern could become unorganized enough to 
no longer declare Sean a tropical cyclone soon.  Model simulated 
satellite imagery continues to insist that the system will gradually 
decay and become devoid of convection. The NHC forecast is similar 
to the previous, with Sean forecast to become a post-tropical 
remnant low tonight, although the system may hold on until the 
circulation opens up into a trough in about 36 hours.
 
The depression is moving west-northwestward with an estimated 
motion of 285/10 kt. As the system weakens and becomes vertically 
shallow, a turn more westward is forecast within the low-level 
steering flow. The NHC track is similar to the previous advisory and 
is near the corrected and simple consensus aids.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/2100Z 18.0N  48.2W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  16/0600Z 18.2N  49.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1800Z 18.4N  52.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly