Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Tue Mar 05 2024

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms should develop Thursday
afternoon through Thursday night across parts of the southern Plains
to the ArkLaTex vicinity. Large hail should be the main threat.

...Southern Plains into the ArkLaTex...
An upper trough/low initially centered over southern CA and
northwest Mexico will traverse eastward across the Southwest and
adjacent parts of northern Mexico on Thursday. Large-scale ascent
preceding this upper trough will encourage lee cyclogenesis across
the southern High Plains through Thursday evening. Modest low-level
moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid 50s to low
60s, should advance northward through the day across parts of TX
into OK along and east of a surface dryline. A front is also
forecast to sharpen on the northern edge of appreciable low-level
moisture return across northern OK and southern KS.

Elevated thunderstorms will probably be ongoing Thursday morning
across parts of the southern/central Plains, with a generally low
severe threat owing to weak MUCAPE forecast. There are still some
differences in model guidance regarding the strength of the surface
low across west TX, the placement of the dryline by late Thursday
afternoon, and with the quality of low-level moisture return. Even
with these continued uncertainties, weak to moderate instability
should develop by peak afternoon heating along much of the length of
the dryline, and south of the front in northern OK/southern KS. NAM
forecast soundings across these areas show steep mid-level lapse
rates present, along with strong deep-layer shear that should be
more than sufficient for supercells.

The primary uncertainty remains timing of surface-based convective
initiation, and overall coverage given that the ejection of the
upper trough across the southern High Plains is forecast to occur
mainly Thursday night into early Friday morning. Still, any
supercells that can develop should pose a threat for large hail and
damaging winds. The tornado threat is less clear, with modest
low-level moisture a potentially limiting factor. Regardless, a
Slight Risk has been maintained where confidence is highest that
convection will eventually develop through Thursday night. A broader
Marginal Risk is in place across southern KS into OK/TX and the
ArkLaTex where some potential for severe hail may exist, even though
thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain elevated.

..Gleason.. 03/05/2024