Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Mon Apr 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are expected through tonight
across a large portion of the southern Plains and into the lower
Mississippi valley. Very large hail remains the main threat, though
a few tornadoes and severe gusts are also possible.

...01z Update...

Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low
settling southeast across AZ/northwest Mexico. This feature is
forecast to progress to a position near 31N/108W by 12z as a 500mb
speed max translates into the base of the trough over northern
Mexico. LLJ is expected to increase markedly across TX tonight in
response to the approaching trough, and this will sustain warm
advection across the southern Plains into the day2 period.

Moisture continues to surge northwest across TX, and this is
reflected in a gradual expansion of deep convection across the TX
South Plains (reference MCD #388 for more information).
Additionally, an expansive corridor of deep convection is lifting
north across east TX/LA within a strongly sheared environment.
Sustained low-level warm advection will drive thunderstorm activity
across this region overnight. While environmental shear favors
supercells, significant storm mergers and clustering suggest one or
more MCSs may ultimately evolve. Overall, very large hail should be
the primary risk with supercells, though locally damaging winds, and
perhaps a few tornadoes are possible.

Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for severe across this
region continues.

..Darrow.. 04/09/2024