Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Tuesday: Central Great Plains into the upper Midwest...
Some severe-thunderstorm potential may evolve from the central Great
Plains into the upper Midwest on Tuesday, along/ahead of a
southward-moving cold front. Uncertainty remains regarding storm
evolution leading into this period from D3/Monday, with some
potential for the cold front to become increasingly displaced from
stronger flow aloft. However, moderate to strong buoyancy and at
least modest deep-layer shear could support strong to severe storms
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  

...D5/Wednesday: Central/southern Great Plains into the OH Valley
and Northeast...
Some threat for strong to severe storms will again be possible near
the cold front Wednesday afternoon and evening, which is generally
forecast to be draped from the south-central Great Plains
northeastward across the OH Valley into parts of the Northeast.
There is some potential for a stronger mid/upper-level shortwave
trough to interact with the front across the Northeast, though
instability may remain somewhat limited. Farther southwest into the
Plains, pre-frontal instability will be greater, but deep-layer
shear is expected to remain rather weak. 

...D6/Thursday - D8/Saturday...
Extended-range guidance generally supports potential for a
mid/upper-level shortwave trough to amplify and move across the
northern CONUS by the end of next week, though there is considerable
spread regarding the timing of any such shortwave. While
predictability is too low to introduce probabilities at this time,
there is potential for an organized severe-thunderstorm threat to
evolve somewhere from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes and
Northeast, during the Thursday to Saturday time frame.