Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0500 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2024

Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

Beginning D3/Friday, a weak upper-level low located off of the
California coast will begin moving northward along the western
periphery of an upper-level ridge centered over the Great Basin.
Throughout D4/Saturday, this upper feature is expected to translate
northward to the Pacific Northwest, bringing some increased chances
of dry thunderstorm occurrence across much of the Sierra range into
the Cascades. By D5/Sunday, significant disagreement in the medium
range guidance occurs in the timing and phasing of a shortwave
trough that approaches the Oregon/Washington Coast, though the
occurrence of at least some dry thunder appears possible. D6/Monday
through D8/Wednesday, ridging is forecast to return to much of the
West, bringing with it hot and dry conditions.

...Northwest...
Dry/breezy conditions are expected across portions of the southern
Cascades on D3/Friday, into far Northern California. Some
uncertainty remains in the strength of forecast surface winds,
though with low relative humidity and terrain induced winds, there
may be locally critical conditions. 

By D4/Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorm occurrence appears
possible across much of the Sierra and Cascade ranges, into Eastern
Oregon and Western Idaho, as better moisture arrives in advance of
the approaching upper low. Chances for dry thunder will continue
into D5/Sunday for much of Eastern Oregon into Idaho, though
uncertainty in the forecast for ascent precludes the expansion or
addition of dry thunder areas. 

There is some indication of an additional shortwave trough bringing
chances of dry thunder to portions of Washington, though significant
disagreement exists in model guidance on the timing and placement of
the trough, precluding the addition of any dry thunder probabilities
at this time. 

...Northern Arizona into Southern Utah...
Some chances for dry thunder exist along the northern periphery of
monsoonal moisture in northern Arizona into Southern Utah on
D3/Friday and D4/Saturday. However, the threat appears to be
localized, with generally higher PWAT values and only modestly
receptive fuels where dry thunder is most likely.

..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...