Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2024

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe-thunderstorm potential currently appears low on
Monday.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move gradually eastward
across the northeast CONUS on Monday. An embedded shortwave is
expected to move through the base of the trough across the lower
Great Lakes region into the Mid Atlantic/Northeast. A midlevel
shortwave trough is forecast to move across the northern
Rockies/High Plains, with a weaker shortwave potentially moving from
the central Plains into the upper Midwest. An area of low pressure
initially over the Bay of Campeche may evolve into a tropical
cyclone. 

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible across parts of
the lower Great Lakes, Intermountain West, and potentially into
parts of the High Plains, though low-level moisture is expected to
remain rather limited. Nocturnal elevated convection may be possible
from the northern Plains into the upper Midwest, though this
potential remains quite uncertain. 

...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...
Ascent and cooling temperatures aloft in association with the
digging shortwave trough will support diurnal thunderstorm potential
from the lower Great Lakes into central/northern NY. Most guidance
suggests that buoyancy will remain quite limited, though gusty winds
and small hail could accompany any deeper convection. The 07/12Z NAM
is notably stronger with both the digging shortwave and
destabilization, suggesting a threat for more-organized convection.
Confidence in this more aggressive scenario is too low for
probabilities at this time.  

...Deep South Texas...
See NHC forecasts and advisories for more information regarding
possible tropical cyclone development in the Bay of Campeche.
Uncertainty remains high regarding the details, but guidance
generally suggests that the favored northeast quadrant of any
developing cyclone will remain offshore of south TX into Tuesday
morning, which would limit inland severe potential through the end
of the period.

..Dean.. 09/07/2024