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ABNT20 KNHC 081143

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Sun Sep 8 2024



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



Western Gulf of Mexico (AL91):

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association

with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Gulf

of Mexico. This system is forecast to drift slowly northwestward

during the next couple of days, and environmental conditions are

expected to become conducive for additional development. A tropical

depression is likely to form during the next couple of days as the

system moves generally northwestward and then northward near or

along the Gulf coast of Mexico and Texas through the middle of the

week. Interests along the western and northwestern Gulf Coast should

closely monitor the progress of this system. Watches could be

required for portions of the western Gulf coast later today or

tonight. An Air-Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is also

scheduled to investigate the system later today.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.



Central Tropical Atlantic (AL92):

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an elongated area of low

pressure over the central tropical Atlantic continue to show some

signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for

additional development of this system, and a tropical depression

could form while the system meanders over the central tropical

Atlantic through Monday and then begins to move generally westward

at around 10 mph through the rest of the week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...40 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.



Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:

A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of

the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized

showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to move very

little during the next couple of days until it potentially interacts

with a tropical wave that is forecast to move off the west coast of

Africa on Monday. Environmental conditions thereafter are expected

to be favorable for gradual development of this system, and a

tropical depression could form by the middle or latter part of the

week while the system begins moving slowly west-northwestward.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.



$$

Forecaster Papin


Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook