584 
WTPZ44 KNHC 142033
TCDEP4
 
Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042025
300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025
 
Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Dalila, with 
cold cloud tops near -80 C and a well-defined convective band shown 
in satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds 
near 55 kt, which prompted an increase in the estimated intensity to 
55 kt during the intermediate advisory. Since then, the convective 
structure has remained steady, and with both objective and 
subjective satellite intensity estimates continuing to support this 
intensity, thus, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this 
advisory.

The initial motion is estimated at 300/9 kt. The storm is expected 
to continue moving toward the west-northwest into tonight, then 
begin turning toward the west by Sunday as the mid- to upper-level 
ridge continues to strengthen to the north. The forecast guidance 
remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast 
track is close to the various consensus models and is similar to the 
previous NHC forecast.

Dalila has likely reached its peak intensity and the storm may 
maintain its current strength for a few more hours. By Sunday, the 
storm will begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more 
stable environment, which will initiate a weakening trend. The 
system is forecast to become a remnant low in 48 hours, then 
dissipate into an open trough in 72 hours. The NHC intensity 
forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical 
guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy 
rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through 
Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are 
expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast.
 
2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the warning area today.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly