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#765110
Sat 14 Jun 2025 08:34:PM
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Joined: Feb 2001
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Issued at 300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 584 WTPZ44 KNHC 142033 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Dalila Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042025 300 PM CST Sat Jun 14 2025 Deep convection continues to burst over the center of Dalila, with cold cloud tops near -80 C and a well-defined convective band shown in satellite imagery. A recent scatterometer pass showed peak winds near 55 kt, which prompted an increase in the estimated intensity to 55 kt during the intermediate advisory. Since then, the convective structure has remained steady, and with both objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates continuing to support this intensity, thus, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt for this advisory.
The initial motion is estimated at 300/9 kt. The storm is expected to continue moving toward the west-northwest into tonight, then begin turning toward the west by Sunday as the mid- to upper-level ridge continues to strengthen to the north. The forecast guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is close to the various consensus models and is similar to the previous NHC forecast.
Dalila has likely reached its peak intensity and the storm may maintain its current strength for a few more hours. By Sunday, the storm will begin moving over cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment, which will initiate a weakening trend. The system is forecast to become a remnant low in 48 hours, then dissipate into an open trough in 72 hours. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the statistical-dynamical guidance and is very similar to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The outer bands of Tropical Storm Dalila will bring locally heavy rainfall to the Mexican states of Michoacán and Guerrero through Sunday morning. Scattered areas of flooding and mudslides are expected, especially in areas of steep terrain near the coast. 2. Dalila is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across portions of the warning area today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.8N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 17.4N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 17.8N 108.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 17.9N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1800Z 17.9N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 17.9N 114.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs/Kelly Source: Tropical Storm Dalila Forecast Discussion Number 9
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