000
WTNT41 KNHC 242036
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Andrea Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012025
500 PM AST Tue Jun 24 2025
 
Deep convection associated with Andrea collapsed around 1500Z and 
has not redeveloped. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensity 
estimate from TAFB was 1.5, which is in line with the degradation 
in satellite presentation. Scatterometer data from earlier 
this morning showed numerous 33 to 36 knot wind barbs, so the 
initial intensity for this advisory is held at 35 knots.
 
The initial motion is 050/17 knots. This motion is expected to
continue through dissipation, which is forecast to occur by 24
hours. The track forecast closely follows the latest consensus 
guidance.
 
The clock is ticking on Andrea now with the loss of deep convection. 
This will be a short-lived tropical storm, as environmental 
conditions will become increasingly hostile during the next 12 to 24 
hours. Water temperatures will drop to around 20/21C, with vertical 
wind shear increasing to 30-40 knots, in a dry mid-level 
environment. The intensity forecast shows Andrea becoming a 
post-tropical remnant low later tonight, with the system expected to 
dissipate on Wednesday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/2100Z 37.9N  47.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/0600Z 39.0N  44.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Jelsema/Blake