736 
WTPZ42 KNHC 012039
TCDEP2
 
Tropical Storm Gil Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072025
1100 AM HST Fri Aug 01 2025
 
Gil has slightly strengthened over the past few hours.  A 
scatterometer pass from 1710 UTC showed an area of near 50 kt 
vectors in the northeastern quadrant of the storm.  More recent 
geostationary satellite data shows fragmented convection, with a 
curved band wrapping around the southern semicircle. The imagery 
suggests Gil is experiencing a dry air intrusion wrapping around the 
storm's core.  Based on the ASCAT data (accounting for instrument 
undersampling) and a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates 
the initial intensity is increased slightly to 60 kt.

The initial motion is 290/15 kt.  The track forecast reasoning 
remains unchanged.  Gil should continue a west-northwestward motion 
along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge for the next few 
days.  As the storm weakens, a turn to the west is forecast around 
day 4.  The NHC track prediction is essentially unchanged from the 
previous cycle's forecast.
 
Gil is currently crossing a cooling gradient of the sea surface 
temperatures and nearing the 26 degree Celsius isotherm.  Therefore, 
the storm's chances for any significant strengthening are quickly 
diminishing.  Beyond 12 hours, global models predict increasing 
shear and a dry and stable airmass will steadily weaken the storm 
for the remainder of the forecast period.  The latest official 
intensity forecast lies near the various consensus aids.  Gil is 
still expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by the end of 
weekend.  

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/2100Z 15.9N 123.3W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  02/0600Z 16.9N 125.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  02/1800Z 18.4N 129.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  03/0600Z 19.7N 132.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  03/1800Z 20.8N 135.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  04/0600Z 21.6N 137.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 72H  04/1800Z 22.3N 140.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  05/1800Z 23.2N 145.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  06/1800Z 23.8N 150.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Bucci