SPC MD 1927
MD 1927 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 586... FOR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INTO NORTHWEST/NORTH-CENTRAL OK

Mesoscale Discussion 1927
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Areas affected...Southwest/south-central KS into
northwest/north-central OK

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586...

Valid 110408Z - 110545Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 586
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase late tonight, along
with a continued threat for isolated hail. Watch issuance downstream
of WW 586 may be needed.

DISCUSSION...The remnant of an earlier storm cluster across
southeast CO (and a related midlevel vorticity maximum) is in the
process of intercepting a cluster of supercells across southwest KS
late this evening. This interaction, combined with a gradually
increasing low-level jet and easterly flow near/north of a remnant
boundary, could lead to upscale growth and development of a
forward-propagating MCS. Should this occur, the severe-wind threat
(including potential for gusts near or above 75 mph) would increase
into the early overnight hours. Strong buoyancy and 30-40 kt of
effective shear will also continue to support occasional supercells,
with a threat of hail and possibly a brief tornado. 

Farther east, a storm cluster across north-central OK may continue
to backbuild, as new cells continue to form to the cool side of a
westward-moving outflow. Effective shear is this region is somewhat
weaker (generally 25-30 kt), but sufficient for occasional organized
cells in the presence of steep midlevel lapse rates and strong
buoyancy. Hail and locally damaging wind will remain a threat with
the strongest cells in this cluster. 

The westward-moving outflow from the northern OK cluster will
eventually impinge upon the upscale-growing cluster across southwest
KS, and potentially result in some weakening overnight. However,
before any such weakening occurs, an organized severe-wind threat
may spread downstream of WW 586, potentially resulting in new watch
issuance.

..Dean/Guyer.. 08/11/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   37920129 38310077 38209895 38179795 37829731 37149683
            36629699 36519768 36509819 36499922 36610002 36680089
            36840113 37010146 37920129 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1927.html