000
WTNT42 KNHC 201446
TCDAT2
 
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025

Gabrielle has become a little better organized this morning, with 
increased curved banding over the eastern semicircle and a 1009Z 
SSM/IS overpass suggesting a mid-level eye was forming. However, 
this feature appeared to be to the northeast of the low-level 
center, suggesting that Gabrielle is tilted vertically due to 
southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a 
bit and are now in the 45-55 kt range. Based on this, the initial 
intensity is increased to 50 kt.  Air Force Reserve and NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently enroute to investigate 
Gabrielle.

The initial motion is 320/11 kt.  During the next 48-60 h, 
Gabrielle is expected to recurve to the north and northeast between 
the subtropical ridge to the east and a mid-latitude trough over 
the southeastern United States and adjacent parts of the Atlantic. 
The track guidance remains tightly clustered during this time, and 
the main change since the last advisory is that the guidance is a 
little slower in forward speed. Thus, this part of the new forecast 
track is similar to, but a little slower than, the previous 
forecast.  The reliable guidance models and the official forecast 
continue to keep Gabrielle well to the east of Bermuda during 
recurvature. After 60 h, Gabrielle should move east-northeastward 
to eastward as it becomes embedded in zonal westerly flow. This part 
of the track guidance has shifted a little south from the previous 
advisory and also shows a slower forward speed. The new official 
forecast is therefore a little south of and a little slower than the 
previous forecast.

Gabrielle is expected to be in a light-to-moderate shear 
environment for the next 60-72 h, and steady strengthening is 
expected during this time. One change in the intensity guidance 
since the last advisory is that the regional hurricane models are 
less aggressive in strengthening the storm, and so the forecast 
peak intensity of 90 kt is now near the upper edge of the intensity 
guidance envelope. After peak intensity, it currently appears that 
Gabrielle's extratropical transition will not occur until after 
the forecast period. So, the intensity forecast shows steady 
weakening due to increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea 
surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity 
forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass
east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.  Interests on Bermuda
should continue to monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind
and rainfall impacts are still possible.
 
2.  Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda
and will build through the weekend.  These swells are also expected 
to reach the coast of the United States from North Carolina 
northward, along with the coast of Atlantic Canada, late this 
weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause 
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 25.0N  59.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 26.2N  60.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 27.8N  61.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 29.4N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 31.1N  61.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 32.8N  60.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 34.5N  57.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 37.0N  48.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 38.5N  36.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven