642 
WTPZ45 KNHC 060843
TCDEP5
 
Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP152025
200 AM PDT Mon Oct 06 2025

Satellite imagery indicates that Octave has begun to weaken over the 
past several hours, with its central dense overcast diminishing in 
size and its cloud tops warming. This trend, combined with a 0602 
UTC Metop-C ASCAT pass showing peak surface winds near 50 kt, 
supports setting the initial intensity at 60 kt, making Octave a 
tropical storm.

The initial motion is eastward at around 6 kt, and this general 
motion is expected to continue through much of the day today. A 
gradual bend toward the east-southeast is forecast tonight through 
Wednesday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough extending 
southwestward off the U.S. West Coast and a much larger Hurricane 
Priscilla tracking northwestward well to the east. By late 
Wednesday, Octave is expected to turn toward the northeast as it 
begins to interact with and eventually become absorbed by Priscilla. 
There remains a decent amount of cross- and along-track spread 
among the guidance during the midweek period, largely due to 
uncertainties associated with this binary interaction. The new NHC 
forecast is very similar to the previous advisory and closely 
follows the consensus aid.

Global models suggest Octave has likely peaked in intensity, which 
aligns with recent trends. Drier mid-level air entraining into the 
circulation and gradually increasing vertical wind shear will 
support continued weakening during the next couple of days. 
Thereafter, stronger shear combined with interaction with Priscilla 
should induce additional weakening. Octave is forecast to open up 
into a trough and be absorbed by Priscilla by the end of the 
forecast period. The intensity forecast remains close to the 
previous NHC advisory and near the middle portion of the guidance 
envelope.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/0900Z 16.3N 122.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 16.3N 121.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  07/0600Z 16.0N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  07/1800Z 15.6N 119.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  08/0600Z 15.5N 117.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  08/1800Z 15.8N 116.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  09/0600Z 16.7N 114.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)