Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0657 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TN...SOUTHWEST KY...FAR SOUTHEAST MO...FAR SOUTHERN IL...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe storms remain possible this
evening across parts of the middle Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio
Valley.

...Mid MS to lower OH Valleys...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward toward
the Lower Great Lakes region this evening. A rather strong low-level
jet associated with this system will maintain elevated convection
for much of the evening across parts of eastern KY/TN. MUCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg and moderate effective shear will continue to support
a few strong elevated storms with a threat of isolated hail. 

Farther southwest, moderate surface-based buoyancy remains in place
from western KY/TN into AR and far southeast MO/southern IL, along
and ahead of a cold front. While ascent associated with the
departing shortwave trough will become increasingly displaced to the
north and east, strong deep-layer shear will support supercell
potential with ongoing convection through the evening, as storms
move east-southeastward. Any sustained supercells could pose at
least an isolated threat of hail, locally damaging wind, and
possibly a tornado. Late this evening, increasing CINH should result
in a general weakening trend, though a strong storm or two cannot be
ruled out into the early overnight hours.  

...Southwest...
Scattered storms will continue this evening across parts of AZ into
southeast CA/NV, in association with a mid/upper-level low. Buoyancy
will remain modest at best, but sufficient deep-layer shear could
support briefly strong storms through the evening.

..Dean.. 11/19/2025