Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0117 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...20z Update...
Critical fire weather highlights have been expanded farther north
into southeastern CO and farther east into the Rolling Plains of TX.
Recent model guidance has increased probabilities of combined
(west-southwesterly) wind speeds greater than 20 mph and RH values
less than 15% within the Critical area. These conditions atop dry
and recently receptive fuels will support ignition and fire spread
throughout the afternoon on Tuesday. 

Southeast WY into western NE will experience very strong downslope
winds of 35-45 mph (locally stronger gusts up to 70 mph) late
Tuesday morning into the overnight hours. Given recent snowfall,
expected cloud cover, and minimum RH of 30-40%, Elevated fire
highlights have been withheld. 

See the previous discussion for more information.

..Elizalde-Garcia/Thornton.. 02/23/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0103 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026/

...Synopsis...
...Southeast Colorado into southern High Plains...
Mid-level flow will increase across the central and southern Rockies
on Tuesday. A modestly deep lee cyclone will promote downslope winds
from southeast Colorado into northeastern/east-central New Mexico.
Winds of 20-25 mph appear possible, especially within the more
terrain-favored locations. RH of 10-15% will also be common. Dry
fuels will continue to support ignition and spread in this
environment. Critical fire weather is most likely in southeast
Colorado into eastern New Mexico and parts of the Texas South
Plains. Farther south, weaker winds will keep fire weather concerns
Elevated within the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend regions.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
Ahead of the surface front, stout, gusty southerly/southwesterly
winds are expected from the Texas Rolling Plains into much of
Oklahoma and Ozarks. Mid/high clouds will be increasingly probable
with northeastward extent. However, the dry return flow will allow
RH of fall into the 15-25% range. Winds of 15-20 mph will occur
during the afternoon. Strong flow within the lowest 2 km will also
promote stronger gusts. Most areas have not observed precipitation
recently and fuels remain receptive.

...Southeast Wyoming into the Front Range...
Given the pressure gradient across the terrain, dry downslope winds
will be possible in these areas. Recent precipitation has mitigated
fuels dryness in the short term. Furthermore, mid/upper clouds
appear likely which will create some uncertainty in how low RH will
fall. Locally elevated conditions do appear possible where fuels are
drier as pockets of stronger wind are possible.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...