Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHEAST MISSOURI...FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA...AND PARTS OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast on Tuesday from the
southern Plains into the southern Great Lakes vicinity. All severe
hazards are possible.

...Synopsis...
A robust low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across
northern MX and the Southwest to the southern Plains through the
period. At the same time, a broad northern-stream midlevel trough
will gradually amplify as it advances eastward across the northern
Plains into the upper MS Valley. In the low-levels, a
quasi-stationary warm front will extend eastward into the southern
Great Lakes vicinity from a weak surface low over the middle MS
Valley. Farther south, a separate surface low will evolve over the
central High Plains, while a dryline extends southward before being
overtaken by a cold front. Along and east of these features, a
broad/expansive warm sector characterized by middle/upper 60s
dewpoints will encompass the southern/central Plains into the middle
MS Valley and southern Great Lakes region. While this large-scale
pattern should favor at least scattered severe thunderstorms capable
of all hazards across a broad area, the split-flow nature of the
pattern limits confidence in the details.

...Middle MS Valley and southern Great Lakes...
Along and south of the quasi-stationary warm front, a low-level jet
will gradually strengthen into the evening/overnight hours,
resulting in large clockwise-curved hodographs. Given ample
moisture/buoyancy, supercell clusters will be the primary concern,
with an accompanying risk of damaging winds, a few tornadoes (some
possibly strong) and severe hail. Given a substantial westerly
component to the deep-layer flow/shear, any established storms that
evolve over the middle MS Valley region may continue to pose a
tornado risk into the southern Great Lakes region during the
overnight hours, though confidence in this scenario is currently
low.

...Southern Plains...
Severe thunderstorms are expected along/east of the dryline in the
southern Plains, where ample deep-layer shear and surface-based
buoyancy will support a mix of organized clusters and supercells
capable of all hazards. Eventually, linear forcing along the front
should promote upscale growth, when the severe-wind and tornado risk
may increase into central TX. A separate corridor of severe
potential is possible across north-central into southern OK, where
the potential for semi-discrete supercells is evident.

..Weinman.. 03/08/2026