Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA...

The primary change to this outlook was to add a Critical area for
portions of eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. Here, the latest
guidance consensus depicts sustained westerly surface winds
exceeding 20 mph on a widespread basis for several hours tomorrow
afternoon. Though guidance varies a bit more in terms of minimal RH,
several guidance members depict RH dipping into the 15-20 range on a
widespread basis. When also factoring in preceding days of dry
conditions and an overall lack of recent appreciable precipitation
accumulations, fuels should be receptive enough to wildfire-spread
to warrant Critical highlights. 

The previous forecast across the southern High Plains remains on
track, with only a few modifications made to the highlights to
adjust for the latest guidance consensus.

..Squitieri.. 03/08/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0306 AM CDT Sun Mar 08 2026/

...Synopsis...
Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across
parts of the southern and central High Plains on Monday. Strong
zonal flow across the northern Rockies will continue to promote lee
troughing and the initial stages of cyclogenesis along the High
Plains through Monday evening. This will support another day of
diurnally-enhanced westerly downslope flow over regions with
receptive fuels. 

...Southern High Plains...
Persistent lee troughing will support another day of 15-25 mph
westerly winds across northeast NM into the OK/TX Panhandles where
fuels will remain very dry. Dry air advecting into the region today
through Monday afternoon will promote RH minimums in the single
digits to low teens. A swath of critical fire weather conditions
appears likely from northeast NM into the TX Panhandle under a belt
of stronger flow near 850 mb. While confidence in critical
conditions is fairly high within this corridor (60-80% chance of
sustained critical conditions per HREF forecasts), some
deterministic solutions, notably the recent 00z HRRR run, do show
more widespread coverage of 20-25 mph winds across the TX Panhandle
and into far western OK.

...Central High Plains...
A slight southward displacement of the mid-level jet will focus the
strongest surface pressure falls - and the early stages of
cyclogenesis - across portions of northeast WY through Monday
evening. Westerly low-level winds are expected to increase on the
western and southern peripheries of the low, and will likely be
strongest during the late afternoon hours when boundary-layer
heating/mixing is maximized. Latest guidance depicts sustained winds
of 15-20 mph with RH minimums falling to near 20% after multiple
days of persistent downslope winds. Although portions of the region
have received precipitation over the past 72 hours, fine fuels will
likely see sufficient drying over the next 48 hours to support fire
spread on Monday afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...