Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0459 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

...Synopsis...
An eastward translating upper-level trough will exit the eastern
U.S. by the weekend, with a broad surface high pressure settling
into the OH River Valley by Day 5 Sunday. A building ridge across
the West will continue to support near record heat across much of
the Southwestern U.S. through the end of the week as a trough
impinges upon the West Coast by early next week. At the surface, a
strong cold front should elevated fire weather concerns across
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday as dry,
post-frontal flow impacts this region. Dry southerly flow returns on
Day 4/Saturday across much of the southern and central Plains as
surface high pressure pushes into the eastern U.S. and lee troughing
evolves in the northern High Plains. Mid and upper-level moisture
entering the Southwest ahead of the next trough could bring
high-based showers and thunderstorms to portions of NM and AZ over
the weekend, increasing opportunities for ignitions over
unseasonably dry fuels.

...Day 3/Friday - Central and Southern Plains...
Broad post-frontal flow from the north-northeast will encompass
portions of the central and southern Plains on Day 3/Friday. The
gusty north-northeast winds accompanying a very dry air mass
centered across portions of eastern KS, southwestward into OK and
the TX Panhandle should support a fire weather threat across this
region. A northeastward expansion of the existing 40% probabilities
was warranted based on latest model guidance and receptive fuels in
place.

...Day 4/Saturday - Southern/Central Plains and Southeast...
Fire weather impacts from the dry post-frontal environment will
extend into portions of the Southeast by Day 4/Saturday. Appreciable
northeast winds amid low daytime relative humidity and dry fuels
supports continuation of the 40% critical probabilities for portions
of the Carolinas, GA, southern TN and northwestern AL. 

...Day 5/Sunday - Arizona and New Mexico...
Increasing mid and upper-level moisture from the Pacific and
emerging daytime instability should support high-based convection
across portions of the Southwest. Exceptionally warm and dry
conditions preceding and leading up to this event has aided in fuel
receptivity to spread. As such, introduced a 10% probability for
isolated dry thunderstorms for portions of eastern AZ and western
NM, where drier fuels exist. Farther north, warming temperatures and
an increasingly dry boundary layer should align with breezy west
winds across portions of southeastern WY into western NE and far
northeastern CO where minimal precipitation is expected to fall over
the next few days. Dry fuels should largely still be in place by Day
5/Sunday across much of the High Plains so introduced 40% critical
probabilities where the dry fuels coexist with breezy west winds and
dry conditions. The high-based convection and dry thunderstorm
threat could linger into early next week as the trough enters the
western U.S. but generally cooler temperatures and higher relative
humidity could reduce overall fire weather threat.

..Williams.. 03/25/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...