Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0338 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe thunderstorm potential will be low through at least Day
6/Tuesday. In the wake of a cold front moving offshore the Atlantic
coast and into the Gulf, strong surface high pressure will build
east of the Rockies and persist across parts of the South and East
through Day 6/Tuesday. As a result, a dry and stable boundary layer
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. 

By the middle of the week, and upper trough is forecast to
overspread the western U.S. As this occurs, lee surface troughing
will allow for increasing southerly winds over the Plains, and Gulf
moisture will begin to return northward Days 7-8/Wed-Thu. It remains
uncertain if the upper trough will begin to eject eastward toward
the Plains at the end of the period. If this occurs, some severe
potential may develop across the Plains, though predictability is
low.