SPC MD 742
MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 211... FOR FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA TOWARD FAR NORTHEAST KANSAS

Mesoscale Discussion 0742
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Areas affected...far southeast Nebraska toward far northeast Kansas

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211...

Valid 170136Z - 170330Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 211
continues.

SUMMARY...A brief tornado cannot be ruled out as cells interact with
the wind shift/outflow.

DISCUSSION...Several cells are currently ongoing from Washington
County KS to just south of Lincoln, NE, and these are within the
instability axis where MLCAPE is over 3000 J/kg. Surface analysis
also shows an outflow boundary just north of these cells and
extending into northwest MO, with a more subtle wind shift with
northeast winds from just northwest of these cells into northern KS.

Area VWPs show the increasing low-level jet with around 35 kt out of
the south at Topeka. Given the increased shear with effective SRH
now over 200 m2/s2, a brief period in time and space may exist for a
brief tornado before these cells are undercut by the outflow.

..Jewell.. 05/17/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON   40069787 40469718 40769678 40729615 40369608 39949640
            39739717 39749761 39929787 40069787 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN

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