000
WTPZ43 KNHC 101435
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP032026
900 AM CST Wed Jun 10 2026

Cristina is rather disorganized at the moment. The low-level center 
that has been tracked previously has become hard to locate even 
with the aid of a recent microwave pass. The microwave data 
suggests the possibility that a second vorticity center is forming 
to the southwest close to a convective band. However, 1-min GOES 
data suggests this center is a low- to mid-level feature and not a 
surface center. The advisory position is based primarily on 
continuity from the previous advisory, and the initial intensity 
is held at 35 kt based on the various satellite intensity 
estimates. Upcoming SAR and scatterometer passes will hopefully 
bring some clarity as to the center location and structure.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/3. However, the track 
guidance is in good agreement that Cristina should turn 
northwestward during the next 12 h as a low- to mid-level ridge 
builds to the northeast of the storm. This motion should bring the 
storm to the coast of Central America in around 24 h and inland 
thereafter.  The new forecast track is a little to the left of the 
previous track based mainly on the initial position, and additional 
adjustments to the track may be necessary depending on what the 
upcoming satellite wind data shows.

Cristina is in a favorable environment of light shear and very warm 
water that should allow some strengthening as suggested by the 
statistical-dynamical models. However, proximity to land and the 
current disorganization are negative factors, and the dynamical 
models forecast little change in strength before landfall. The new 
intensity forecast will show a little strengthening during the next 
12 h. After that, the expected path near and over Central America 
should lead to the cyclone's demise by 48 h.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will 
impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This 
rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, 
especially in areas of steep terrain.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions, especially in gusts, are expected to
impact portions of the coasts of El Salvador and Honduras today 
and tonight.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/1500Z 12.5N  88.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  11/0000Z 12.9N  89.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/1200Z 13.8N  89.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 36H  12/0000Z 15.2N  90.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Beven