Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MIDWEST INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest into Lower
Michigan.

... Synopsis ...

Broad mid-level troughing across the eastern US will persist on
Tuesday. A short-wave trough will move across the Great Lakes as it
moves through the basal region of the eastern US long-wave trough.
Late in the forecast period, a second short-wave trough will dig
southeast into the northern Plains.

At the surface, one front will be draped across the northern Gulf
Coast states, suppressing the richest boundary layer moisture to the
south. A second front will quickly move from the Upper Midwest
across the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes by Wednesday
morning as a surface low slowly pivots across the Lake Superior. 

Overnight Tuesday, cyclogenesis will occur across the northern
Plains in response to the approaching short-wave trough. A deepening
surface low will induce more substantial northward moisture
advection from the southern into central Plains.


... Midwest into Lower Michigan ...

Low-level moisture return will be tempered on Tuesday, owing to the
stalled front across the northern Gulf Coast states and only modest
low-level mass response to the approaching mid-level short-wave
trough. That said, modest southwesterly moisture advection ahead of
the cold front should support a narrow corridor of surface dewpoints
rising into the upper-50Fs to low-60Fs. At the same time, mid-level
lapse rates should steepen with the approaching trough, resulting in
MUCAPE between 500-1500 J/kg, conditioned on the quality of the
moisture return. Storms, perhaps multiple rounds, should develop
along or ahead of the advancing front. Gusty winds and hail should
be the main hazards, with storms generally weakening with eastward
extent due to the loss of diurnal heating and weaker moisture
return.

..Marsh.. 06/14/2026