Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong thunderstorms may continue to pose at least some
risk for severe weather through mid to late evening across parts of
the southern high plains.

...01Z Update...
A subtle short wave impulse digging across the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains/Raton Mesa vicinity appeared to provide support for the
ongoing cluster of thunderstorms now overspreading the New
Mexico/Texas state border vicinity, near and northwest of Clovis. 
Some discrete thunderstorm development persists southwest of Clovis,
and to the north/northwest of Roswell, which could pose a risk for
severe hail another hour or two.  Otherwise, updraft inflow into the
primary cluster already appears to be coming characterized by less
instability, based on latest mesoanalysis and convective trends.  As
this continues, convection appears likely to weaken further with
diminishing potential to produce strong to severe surface gusts
through 02-03Z.

Farther north, convergence near a weak surface low to the
north-northeast of the Raton Mesa vicinity finally appears to be
supporting the initiation of isolated thunderstorm development near
Springfield, CO.  In the presence of steep-lapse rates, low-level
moistening appears to have become supportive of CAPE up to 1000
J/kg.  Beneath 30-35 kt northwesterly winds around 500 mb, shear
appears to conducive to the evolution of a supercell which could
persist for an hour or two this evening, before acquiring more
stable inflow while tending to propagate southeastward.

..Kerr.. 06/16/2026