SPC MD 1256
MD 1256 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EASTERN TN...NORTHERN GA...AND THE WESTERN CAROLINAS

Mesoscale Discussion 1256
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Areas affected...eastern TN...northern GA...and the western
Carolinas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 221937Z - 222130Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage will gradually increase through late
afternoon. Sporadic strong wind gusts will be possible. A watch may
be needed at some point, but a more organized severe risk is
uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms over northern AL and Middle
TN will continue to progress generally east/northeast through the
remainder of the afternoon. Most of the stronger midlevel flow
across the region is in the wake of an MCV/outflow boundary
extending from Middle TN into northwest AL, leaving generally weak
vertical shear across northern GA/eastern TN and the western
Carolinas. Nevertheless, a warm and moist airmass resides across the
area, resulting in moderate instability. Transient
multicells/clusters may produce sporadic strong/locally damaging
gusts. If a more organized cluster/bowing complex can develop
upstream closer to the MCV and move into this area late this
afternoon/early evening, some increased risk for damaging winds may
develop. A more organized severe risk and the need for a severe
thunderstorm watch is uncertain. Trends will be monitored.

..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

LAT...LON   35458606 36528399 36468212 35778200 34938209 34258265
            33928379 33758510 34048546 34668606 35038630 35458606 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1256.html