SPC MD 1438
MD 1438 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA

Mesoscale Discussion 1438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 021716Z - 021945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for Middle
Tennessee into portions of northern Alabama this afternoon in
anticipation of thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Based on the 12Z OHX sounding and current surface
observations, surface heating is beginning to reach and exceed
convective temperatures across much of the Southeast. Visible
satellite trends show a cumulus field increasing in both extent and
depth, and HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows MLCINH effectively gone
across much of Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. While
convective activity has yet to develop, the expectation is that
convective initiation should occur by mid-afternoon. Given steep
mid-level lapse rates from the 12Z OHX sounding (a new daily max
record of 7.5 C/km), modest precipitable water content of 1.72 in,
and generally weak flow aloft, thunderstorms will be capable of
intense downdrafts with strong to severe wind gusts. While the upper
flow generally doesn't support convective organization, storms may
organize along outflow boundaries that will pose locally higher
risks for damaging winds. Conditions will continue to be monitored
for a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon.

..Halbert/Hart.. 07/02/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

LAT...LON   36818797 36868734 36818676 36748646 36658627 36378608
            36068594 35778586 35488585 35028589 34538600 34178616
            34108622 33988651 34018757 34128824 34228851 34578904
            35248932 35588934 36078908 36648844 36818797 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1438.html