Mesoscale Discussion 1474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0442 PM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Lower Michigan

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447...

Valid 032142Z - 032345Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 447
continues.

SUMMARY...A broken line of thunderstorms continues to develop a
cohesive cold pool, which will likely maintain the threat for
damaging/severe winds over the next 1-2 hours as it approaches the
greater Detroit area.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, recent regional reflectivity and
velocity data from Lower MI/northern IN depicts the gradual
emergence of a more cohesive cold pool within an otherwise broken
band of thunderstorms. Concurrently, GOES IR imagery has shown
periodic bursts of intense updrafts and a gradual cooling trend in
cloud-top temperatures, further suggesting that some
organization/consolidation is occurring. Latest RAP mesoanalyses
continue to show an MLCAPE gradient draped eastward across the
greater Detroit area ahead of the convective band. Although
deep-layer shear remains somewhat meager, propagation along this
boundary appears likely over the next few hours. Based on latest
storm track estimates, this band will begin to impact the greater
Detroit area between the next 1-2 hours and will likely pose a
threat for damaging/severe winds (most likely between 50-65 mph).

..Moore.. 07/03/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...

LAT...LON   41578527 41888491 42168469 42628470 42718455 42768274
            42638258 42348276 42168288 41978305 41788317 41628336
            41578527 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH