Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0437 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
A strong upper ridge will persist over the central/northern Plains
through the end of this week into the early weekend. Following a
northward progressing shortwave trough along the Pacific Northwest
coast on Day 3/Thursday, ensembles indicate the upper ridge will
then translate westward to encompass much of the western CONUS while
the eastern US is expected to remain in a troughing pattern. Daily
chances of thunderstorm activity are possible in the extended
forecast period across the Intermountain West as monsoonal moisture
advects northward once again. 

...Portions of northeastern California and the Central Valley,
northwestern Nevada, and far south-central Oregon...
Warm daytime temperatures and low RH will contribute to drying fuels
across the California Coastal Ranges into the Central Valley. ERCs
are forecast to approach the 90-95th percentile by late this week
amid dry and breezy conditions, supporting any new ignitions and the
emergence of lightning holdovers from wet/dry thunderstorms early in
the forecast period. 40% Critical probabilities remain on Day
3/Thursday to account for this threat. Farther north, strong
south-southwesterly flow aloft behind a shortwave trough bypassing
the Pacific Northwest will encourage dry and windy conditions across
northeastern California, northwestern Nevada, and south-central
Oregon on Days 3-4/Thursday-Friday. Preceding days of thunderstorms
and pockets of heavier rainfall may alleviate some fuel concerns;
however, a returning dry airmass and gusty winds may encourage any
lightning holdovers to emerge.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 07/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...