Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS INTO THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon and
evening across portions of the northern and central Plains, and
parts of the southern Appalachians/Carolinas. Isolated severe gusts
may occur over Oklahoma.

...Northern Plains...
Stronger winds aloft will overspread the area on Monday with a front
pushing across the region. While temperatures aloft will be cool,
low-level moisture will not be excessive.

Storms are expected to form by 20Z over eastern ND and west-central
MN, and over the Black Hills. The steep lapse rate environment, with
modest MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/kg along with elongated mid to
upper level hodographs will favor cells producing hail over 1.00". A
greater/more concentrated severe risk is expected near and after
00Z, as activity matures as it moves southeastward into stronger
instability from NE into southeast SD. Additional cells are also
anticipated over central NE. Large hail is probable with all this
activity, with scattered severe gusts as storms merge/cluster during
the evening. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out late day/early
evening as low-level shear increases with a southwesterly low-level
jet.

...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas Vicinity...
The ridge over the Southeast will weaken a bit as a midlevel waves
moves through during the day. Speed at 500 mb will average near 30
kt, with 15-20 kt at 850 mb. This will aid southeastward storm
motions as development occurs within the surface trough/wind shift
from NC and southern VA into TN. Precipitable water near 2.00"
combined with the afternoon well-mixed boundary layer should support
gusty outflow winds, with a few severe gusts over 50 kt possible.
Activity should wane after about 03Z.

...Parts of OK into AR...
Dewpoints are forecast to be relatively high near a weakening
boundary/wind shift that will extend roughly from the TX Panhandle
across central/southern OK and into central AR. Daytime heating will
then lead to a narrow east-west oriented corridor of steep boundary
layer lapse rates, and strong instability. Shear will be weak, and
so will forcing for ascent. However, several CAMs indicate at least
isolated cells developing during the late afternoon, and locally
severe downbursts may occur.

..Jewell.. 08/16/2026