Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NORTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST
OREGON...

...Synopsis...
A robust midlevel trough and accompanying south-southwesterly jet
max will overspread the Northwest through the period -- along the
northwestern periphery of an upper ridge centered on the Rockies. In
the low-levels, a cold front will move eastward across parts of WA
and OR during the day. 

...Northern/Central Intermountain West...
Beneath the midlevel jet streak, enhanced deep-layer
south-southwesterly flow will overspread a dry antecedent air mass
across parts of the northern and central Intermountain West. This
will result in a broad area of 15-20 mph sustained
west-southwesterly surface winds and 15-20 percent RH during the
afternoon. Given receptive fuels across the region, elevated
fire-weather conditions are expected. Over parts of northeast CA,
northwest NV, and south-central/southeast OR, the overlap of 20-25
mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and around 15 percent RH
will favor critical fire-weather conditions. Locally critical
conditions will also be possible within the Cascade gaps, though
these conditions appear too localized for an additional Critical
area at this time. 

...Dry Thunderstorms...
Robust midlevel height falls/forcing for ascent accompanying the
midlevel trough will overspread the northern Intermountain West into
the northern Rockies during the day. Here, deep boundary-layer
mixing beneath a midlevel moisture plume will yield sufficient
buoyancy for isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms
regionally. While 0.7-1 inch PW will support a mix of wet and dry
storms, quick storm motions and the deep/dry boundary layer should
tend to limit overall rainfall. Therefore, isolated
lightning-induced ignitions will be possible atop increasingly
dry/receptive fuels. Additionally, the stronger storms will be
capable of producing strong to severe outflow winds (especially
toward the northern Rockies). For details on the severe risk, see
the SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook.

..Weinman.. 08/21/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...