Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of the
northern Great Basin and across the northern Plains.

...Northern Great Basin Vicinity...
A broad range of 00Z guidance (GFS/RRFS/NAM) shows moderate
instability developing across northern Utah on Saturday amid strong
surface heating. Forecast soundings show an uncapped airmass by
mid-afternoon when scattered thunderstorm activity is expected to
begin. 45 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support storm
organization/longevity and some damaging wind threat (some 75+ mph).
The ECMWF is the least unstable, with more cloud-cover across the
region, which may limit the severe weather threat somewhat.
Nonetheless, even this ECMWF solution would likely support some
severe wind threat. Therefore, a Marginal Risk seems warranted, and
if all guidance trends toward the more unstable solution, an upgrade
to Slight Risk may be needed in later outlooks. 

...Northern Plains...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across the Northern
Plains on Saturday within a moist region to the north of a surface
low. Forcing will be relatively weak, but subtle height falls and
perhaps a weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded within the
southwesterly flow, may be sufficient for isolated to widely
scattered storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings show
long hodographs across the region which would support a supercell
storm mode. A Marginal Risk has been added for this threat, but the
lack of stronger forcing precludes higher probabilities at this
time.

..Bentley.. 08/27/2026