Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms remain possible late
this afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern
High Plains.

...20z Update...
No changes were made to the existing outlook with this update cycle
as the forecast remains on track. See the discussion below and MCD
#2327 for additional information.

..Chalmers/Wendt.. 09/24/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026/

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK and southwest KS...
An extensive plume of mid to upper level moisture currently extends
from southern High Plains through central Plains into the eastern
Dakotas and MN, evidenced by widespread cloudiness and embedded
showers and isolated thunderstorms. This plume is supported by
moderate southwesterly flow aloft between the upper ridging centered
over the Middle/Upper TX coast and lower heights associated with an
amplifying upper trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest. 

Recent surface analysis shows a corridor of greater low-level
moisture (characterized by mid to upper 60s dewpoints) extending
from the TX Low Rolling Plains through the eastern TX and OK
Panhandles into far southwest KS. Much of this corridor of greater
low-level moisture is just east of the cloudiness (and cooler
surface temperatures) associated with the mid/upper moisture plume.
This region should continue to heat, with afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid to upper 80s. Lapse rates are poor, but the warm
temperatures and ample low-level moisture will still support MLCAPE
from 1500 to 2000 J/kg. This buoyancy combined with low-level
convergence (either on outflow from the ongoing showers or as a
result of differential heating) will support isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Vertical shear will be
weak across much of the region, and a largely disorganized storm
mode is anticipated. However, a few water-loaded downbursts are
possible with the strongest cells. 

Slightly stronger large-scale forcing for ascent and vertical shear
is expected into KS as a weak convectively augmented vorticity
maximum moves trough. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are
possible here as well, although weaker buoyancy should limit overall
intensity. Even so, a couple of weak supercells capable of isolated
hail and/or damaging gusts may occur.