Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Sun Oct 04 2026

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S.
tonight.

...Synopsis...
A baroclinic zone across the Southeast U.S. continues to sag
southward as a broader upper trough tracks eastward from the Great
Lakes. Given the lack of stronger upper air support and the onset of
nocturnal cooling/decreased buoyancy, the coverage of lightning
flashes across the Southeast should continue to decrease overnight.
Similarly, a plume of marginal buoyancy over CO into NM, which has
supported some lightning flashes thus far, should also wane through
the evening.

..Squitieri.. 10/05/2026