Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Oct 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are not expected on Wednesday.

...Synopsis...
An initially low-amplitude upper trough over southern Canada and the
northern US will deepen into an upper low as it and an associated
strong mid-level jet move over the Great Lakes and Northeast. A cold
front and cooling mid-level temperatures will support weak buoyancy
beneath the upper low, with isolated thunderstorms likely to be
ongoing early Wednesday. This may continue through the day with
strong height falls overspreading the Lakes and Northeast. A few
low-topped showers/storms with sporadic lightning may continue into
early Thursday. Otherwise, drier and cooler conditions associated
with the advancing cold front will limit thunderstorm potential over
much of the central and eastern US.

Meanwhile, a modest southern-stream upper jet will extend from the
Desert Southwest into TX, and across the Gulf Coast states where a
remnant front will be stalled along the coast. Isolated
thunderstorms will again be possible over the FL Peninsula, and
southern LA/TX near the more robust surface moisture. However,
instability and shear will be weak enough to preclude any severe
weather chances.

Across the West, daytime heating, residual monsoon moisture and the
presence of cool temperatures aloft with a weak upper trough over
the Rockies will support scattered afternoon showers and
thunderstorms over parts of UT, CO, AZ and NM. Easterly upslope flow
associated with the cold front moving down the Plains may also
support an isolated storm or two across western/central NE overnight
into early Thursday. Meager instability and ascent will preclude
severe weather potential.

..Lyons.. 10/05/2026