121
ABNT20 KNHC 052330
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 5 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92):
A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although
environmental conditions appear to be only marginally conducive,
gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical
depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the
week. This system is expected to drift east-northeastward over the
next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to
determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but
interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch