SPC MD 2357
MD 2357 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA

Mesoscale Discussion 2357
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0412 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Areas affected...Southern California and the Lower Colorado River
Valley into South-Central Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 102112Z - 102315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will continue to lift northward
into southern CA and AZ through late this afternoon. A few strong to
severe wind gusts will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm coverage continues to increase across
northern Baja CA this afternoon with the approach of TS Rachel. Low
to mid-level moisture advection has slowly been increasing northward
throughout the day, and will persist through this evening, yielding
~1000 J/kg of MLCAPE. In addition, kinematic fields are becoming
more favorable for some thunderstorm organization across this
region. The latest mesoscale analysis suggests effective bulk shear
is beginning to approach 45-50 kt, along with the YUX vad profile.
DCAPE ~1100 J/kg and storm cell mergers could support severe wind
gusts up to 60 mph, though limited severe coverage does not warrant
a thunderstorm watch at this time.

..Barnes/Gleason.. 10/10/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

LAT...LON   32501483 32011336 31741243 31961194 32861151 33631111
            34391161 34791251 35101349 34991466 34811554 32531694
            32501483 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH

Read more
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2357.html