Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind/hail and a tornado are possible across portions of
central New Mexico into Far West Texas on Saturday.

...NM into southwest TX vicinity...

Strong upper ridging across the MS Valley will prevent much
eastward-advancement of the upper cyclone over AZ. As a result, a
belt of enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will persist from
eastern AZ into NM. At the surface, lower pressure will be oriented
across southern AZ and southwest NM while surface high pressure
builds across the northern/central Plains in the wake of a surface
cold front. As a result of the increased surface pressure gradient
across the southern Rockies, southeasterly low-level winds will
transport/maintain modest boundary layer moisture across
central/eastern NM and western TX. Modest destabilization, and large
scale ascent overspreading the region ahead of the upper cyclone,
will support thunderstorm development by early to mid-afternoon.

Vertically veering wind profiles, increasing in speed with height,
will result in supercell wind profiles and elongated hodographs.
Midlevel lapse rates will remain modest (to around 7 C/km), with
cool 500 mb temperatures around -10 to -13 C noted in regional
forecast soundings. This will result in mainly a large hail risk.
However, given stronger midlevel flow and somewhat fast storm motion
(40 kt or so), some risk for strong gusts also will be possible
where stronger heating occurs. While boundary layer moisture will
remain modest (generally 50s F dewpoints max), some risk for a
tornado is possible given favorable low-level shear. This risk will
likely be focused further south across south-central NM into Far
West TX where instability and surface heating may be maximized.

..Leitman.. 10/23/2026