000
FOPZ12 KNHC 250244
PWSEP2
                                                                    
HURRICANE VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026               
0300 UTC SUN OCT 25 2026                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE    
13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
15N 105W       34 28  40(68)   3(71)   2(73)   1(74)   X(74)   X(74)
15N 105W       50  X  15(15)   7(22)   2(24)   1(25)   1(26)   X(26)
15N 105W       64  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KATZ/CANGIALOSI