Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Showers and thunderstorms will again be possible on Friday across
portions of the south-central U.S. as a weak midlevel shortwave
trough continues to slowly lift northeast across the
southern/central Plains. Weak instability and limited vertical shear
will preclude severe thunderstorm potential. 

Further west, southerly low-level flow will maintain 50s to near 60
F surface dewpoints across southern AZ as a weak upper shortwave
trough moves across the Lower CO Valley and Southwest. Cool
temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel lapse rates atop the
relatively moist boundary layer, fostering areas of modest
destabilization. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development will
be possible, though deep-layer shear is expected to remain somewhat
weak (15-25 kt effective shear). Currently, severe thunderstorm
potential appears limited, but a stronger storm or two could produce
small hail. Trends bear watching as any uptick in instability or
strengthening shear could support a more isolated risk for severe
thunderstorms across southern/central AZ.

..Leitman.. 10/28/2026