Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A large positive-tilt upper trough will move into the Plains on
Monday/D4, with a surface low moving from the central Plains into
the Upper MS Valley. A substantial low-level moisture plume with mid
60s F dewpoints will spread north ahead of the developing low and
cold front, aided by 40+ kt south/southwest 850 mb winds. The main
severe threat should develop during the afternoon along the cold
front, where MUCAPE on the order of 1000 J/kg will be likely.
Effective deep-layer shear will be near 50 kt, with sufficient
low-level turning with height to support both supercells and linear
structures late. Damaging winds and perhaps a couple tornadoes will
be possible, with sporadic large hail as well.

By Tue/D5, the trough is forecast to become more amplified, with
more of a meridional flow pattern aloft spreading across the MS
Valley. Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely along the cold
front and elongated surface trough. There is some potential for
damaging winds/bows from eastern TX into AR, LA, and MS, but
substantial uncertainty exists given marginal instability and
widespread clouds/precip.

This system will generally swing eastward across the southeastern
states from Wed/D6 into Thu/D7, with at least low-end potential over
some of the Gulf Coast states.