Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0651 AM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID TO
LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND INTO EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with potential for isolated severe wind gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado or two will be possible today from the
Sabine and Lower Mississippi Valleys northward into the Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
11 UTC surface analysis reveals a pair of cyclones over the northern
and central Plains. An attendant cold front is noted pushing
southeast across the Plains with a weaker front/surface trough
arcing from eastern KS southward into southern TX. Ahead of this
surface trough, modest moisture return continues with low to mid 60s
dewpoints spreading northward through the MS Valley. The southern
cyclone, analyzed over eastern KS, will continue to intensify as it
drifts northeast in tandem with a prominent upper wave, likely
reaching the upper MS Valley by late tonight. The primary synoptic
cold front is forecast to overtake the surface trough by
mid-afternoon across central MO, AR, and LA as the surface low lifts
to the northeast. Thunderstorm potential should increase as this
occurs, and a few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible
given a favorable kinematic environment. 

...Lower Mississippi Valley to Eastern Texas...
Thunderstorms ongoing this morning will continue to weaken through
mid-day with some degree of re-intensification and/or redevelopment
likely by mid to late afternoon owing to a combination of
strengthening forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
cold front and modest diurnal heating/destabilization. The degree of
re-intensification remains somewhat uncertain due extensive cloud
cover and warm mid-level temperatures sampled by regional 12z
soundings. Additionally, limited cooling aloft is expected as the
primary upper wave (an any attendant ascent-related cooling) lifts
to the north. Consequently, forecast guidance generally depicts
meager buoyancy profiles featuring 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE that will
favor anemic convection. Mean flow through the CAPE-bearing layer
should generally be aligned with the cold front, which will maintain
a predominantly linear/broken-band storm mode. Both of these factors
should modulate the overall potential for widespread intense
convection. 

Nonetheless, strong (40-50 knot) deep-layer wind shear and veering
through the lowest kilometer will still promote some degree of
organization of the deeper, more intense cells and line segments,
and could support isolated severe gusts and perhaps brief tornadoes.
This potential appears greatest across eastern AR and into northern
LA on the northern fringe of a plume of higher low-level moisture
where the overlap of ascent, strong shear, and buoyancy will be
maximized.  

...Mid MS Valley...
Very strong low-level shear will persist through this afternoon and
evening ahead of the deepening surface low across MO, IA, and IL.
Forecast soundings across this region depict 0-1 km SRH values on
the order of 250-300 m2/s2, and mid-level flow will likely exceed 50
knots as the upper jet shifts east/northeast. Despite a favorably
sheared environment, poor lapse rates and greater displacement from
richer low-level moisture will limit buoyancy profiles - especially
for parcels near the surface. This casts considerable uncertainty on
the propensity for strong/severe thunderstorms, though the strong
kinematics may compensate for the meager thermodynamics and could
support a localized and transient severe wind, and perhaps tornado,
threat.

..Moore/Mosier.. 11/03/2026