Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern
Plains on Sunday/Day 4. Ahead of this feature, a moist and unstable
airmass will likely be in place across parts of south and central
Texas eastward to the lower to middle Texas Coast. Thunderstorms
that develop within areas of stronger instability, could have
potential for isolated severe wind gusts. The trough is forecast to
move eastward across the Gulf and through the Southeast from Monday
into Tuesday. On those days, thunderstorms are expected to remain
mostly offshore from the central Gulf Coast.

Further west on Tuesday/Day 6, an upper-level trough is forecast to
move eastward into the Desert Southwest. Ahead of this trough,
thunderstorms will be possible across parts of southern California
and Arizona during the day, and in the southern Rockies Tuesday
night. Uncertainty increases on Wednesday and Thursday, but it
appears the trough in the Desert Southwest could move into the Great
Plains. If this were to occur, thunderstorms would be possible in
parts of the southern Plains on Thursday as the trough passes.

In spite of the chances for storms across parts of the southern U.S.
during the Day 4 to 8 period, predictability concerning severe
potential is low at this time.