Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Valid 161200Z - 221200Z

...Synopsis...
Surface high pressure is expected to reside across the eastern CONUS
through next week, maintaining dry conditions amid rising daytime
high temperatures from the lower MS River Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic. Forecast annual ERCs will approach the 80-90th
percentile by late next week across the Piedmont, though lighter
prevailing winds should reduce broader fire weather concerns. 

Meanwhile, the western U.S. will be categorized by an active
troughing pattern through the forecast period. An initial shortwave
trough and entrained Pacific moisture will promote precipitation
across portions of the Interior West through Day 4/Tuesday, then
eject into the central/northern Plains on Day 5/Wednesday. This
system could induce enhanced downslope winds and drying across
portions of the central Plains behind a passing cold front.
Ambiguity in the timing of the trough ejection and potential for
additional precipitation with the trough arrival limits
predictability of the fire weather threat on Day 5/Wednesday.
Furthermore, a strong upper low is forecast to move onshore and
translate over the western CONUS late next week/weekend. However,
too much uncertainty in the quality of mid-level moisture and
timing/strength of the trough progression will again limit
predictability.

..Elizalde-Garcia.. 11/14/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...