In an eerie coincidence, Hurricane Isaac has spun up to Category 1 strength over warm Gulf waters and is predicted to hit southeastern Louisiana and possibly New Orleans directly seven years to the day after Hurricane Katrina slammed the Crescent City. The tropical cyclone will likely be no stronger than a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale when it hits land later tonight or early tomorrow, a full step below Hurricane Katrina, which hit land as a Category 3 storm.

But even a Category 2 with sustained winds above 150 kilometers-per-hour or, for that matter, a tropical storm can boast pressures and winds strong enough to produce a monster storm surge of Gulf waters, particularly if the timing of landfall coincides with high tide. As it stands, Isaac’s current 97.6 kilopascals of pressure and sustained winds of more than 100 km/h are enough to produce a surge of as much as 4.5 meters onto southeastern Louisiana. The National Weather Service is suggesting that residents keep an axe on hand if they choose to hunker down in place and ride out the storm, just in case they have to chop through their roof and that “life threatening” flooding may occur in areas outside of “hurricane protection levees.” Isaac appears to be on course to take the eastern approach to the Big Easy, raising the risk that “sections of west Jefferson, east St. Charles and lower Lafourche hurricane protection levees could be overtopped.”