SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP044<br />ARLP044 Propagation de K9LA<br /><br />ZCZC AP44<br />QST de W1AW <br />Propagation Forecast Bulletin 44 ARLP044<br />>From Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA<br />Fort Wayne, IN October 25, 2002<br />To all radio amateurs <br /><br />SB PROP ARL ARLP044<br />ARLP044 Propagation de K9LA<br /><br />Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA is filling in this week for Tad Cook,<br />K7VVV.<br /><br />This report is for the period Friday October 18 through Thursday<br />October 24.<br /><br />Geomagnetic field activity for the first 5 days of the reporting<br />period was quiet to unsettled. This increased to major storm level<br />at the end of the period, which was fueled by high speed solar wind<br />emanating from a large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere.<br /><br />There were no significant proton events during the period.<br /><br />X-ray flare activity during the period ranged from low to moderate.<br />The largest flares were M1 events on Sunday and Tuesday. These<br />flares did not cause any significant radio blackouts.<br /><br />Remember the book "Storms from the Sun" by Carlowicz and Lopez that<br />was discussed in the two previous bulletins? In addition to getting<br />information about this book at the referenced web site, check out<br />the review of it in the December 2002 issue of "Sky & Telescope."<br /><br />This weekend is the CQ World Wide DX Phone contest. Propagation is<br />generally expected to be very good. There is a chance of geomagnetic<br />field activity at the minor storm level at the start of the contest,<br />but it is expected to subside after that.<br /><br />There is also a chance of an X class X-ray flare from Region 162,<br />which could cause a short-term blackout on the daylight side of the<br />Earth. Remember this is all a roll of the dice, so be sure to jump<br />in and have fun working lots of DX!<br /><br />Sunspot numbers for October 17 through 23 were 215, 200, 156, 179,<br />139, 132, and 116, with a mean of 162.4. 10.7 cm flux was 178.9,<br />172.6, 179.5, 180.3, 182.5, 169.4, and 163.6, with a mean of 175.3.<br />Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 13, 11, 10, 11, 12, and 10,<br />with a mean of 11.1.<br />NNNN<br />/EX