SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP005<br />ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA<br /><br />ZCZC AP05<br />QST de W1AW Propagation Forecast Bulletin 5 ARLP005<br /><br />> From Tad Cook, K7RA<br /><br />Seattle, WA February 4, 2005<br />To all radio amateurs<br />SB PROP ARL ARLP005<br />ARLP005 Propagation de K7RA<br /><br />Average daily sunspot numbers were down this week by nearly 17<br />points (our reporting week runs from Thursday through the following<br />Wednesday for the timing of this bulletin). Over the same days the<br />average daily solar flux was also down nearly 17 points. The daily<br />geomagnetic indices showed much greater stability, with all of the K<br />and A indices down when compared with the previous seven days.<br /><br />Look for quiet geomagnetic conditions over the next few days, with<br />the February 4-6 (Friday through Sunday) planetary A index around 8,<br />5 and 5. The A index is expected to rise again after this weekend<br />probably due to the return of sunspot 720, which caused so much<br />recent activity. It returns into view on its 27.5 day rotation, and<br />the planetary A index prediction for February 7-9 is 15, 25 and 15.<br /><br />Sunspot numbers and solar flux should also rise, with solar flux<br />values rising above 100 after February 5, staying relatively high<br />(for this point in the declining sunspot cycle) at 130 or above<br />around February 7 and continuing for about a week.<br /><br />If you would like to comment or have a tip, email the author at,<br />k7ra@arrl.net.<br /><br />For more information concerning propagation and an explanation of<br />the numbers used in this bulletin see the ARRL Technical Information<br />Service propagation page at,<br />http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html.<br /><br />Sunspot numbers for January 27 through February 2 were 43, 43, 30,<br />38, 49, 27 and 28 with a mean of 36.9. 10.7 cm flux was 86.9, 84.9,<br />86.4, 85.5, 86.2, 83.7 and 81.8, with a mean of 85.1. Estimated<br />planetary A indices were 3, 6, 20, 16, 19, 6 and 8 with a mean of<br />11.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 5, 16, 10, 15, 4 and<br />7, with a mean of 8.4.<br />NNNN<br />/EX