ABNT20 KNHC 101127


Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

800 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Storm Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean.

A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave located

a little more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is

producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although some

slight development of this system is possible today or tomorrow, by

Thursday, upper-level winds are forecast to become unfavorable for

tropical cyclone formation. This disturbance is expected to move

slowly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next

several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Shower activity associated with a surface trough interacting with

an upper-level low near the north coast of Hispaniola northeastward

over the southwestern Atlantic has increased a little since

yesterday. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is

expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward

across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. However, environmental

conditions could become a little more conducive for development

when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.

Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods

of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and

across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is

expected to move quickly westward during the next several days.

Some slow development is possible late this week and over the

weekend when the system is several hundred miles east of the

Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.


Forecaster Avila

Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook