000

ABNT20 KNHC 151729

TWOAT



Tropical Weather Outlook

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

200 PM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019



For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:



The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical

Depression Fifteen, located less than 200 miles east of the Cabo

Verde Islands.



A trough of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and

thunderstorms over the Yucatan peninsula, northern Guatemala,

southeastern Mexico, and adjacent waters of the Bay of Campeche.

This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern

Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large

portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which

could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.

By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the

Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental

conditions could become a little more conducive for some development

by Thursday and Friday when the system is located over the western

Gulf of Mexico.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



A tropical wave located less than 500 miles east of the southern

Windward Islands is producing limited shower activity. Upper-level

winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system,

and further development of this system is not anticipated while

the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.



$$

Forecaster Stewart


Source: Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook