Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

WTNT45 KNHC 042031

Tropical Depression Five Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052020
500 PM AST Sat Jul 04 2020

Overall, the depression's organization hasn't changed much since
the last advisory. Cloud tops have warmed a little, but the overall
pattern is the same, with deep convection limited to the south of
the center. Late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier this morning
showed max winds of 25-30 kt southeast of the depression's center,
and is the primary basis for maintaining the 30 kt intensity.

No changes of significance were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecast. The official forecast is still based on the track and
intensity consensus, with extra weight given to the dynamical
models for the intensity.

The depression is forecast to accelerate east-northeastward in the
flow between a trough to its north and a ridge to its south. A
combination of shear and dry air will likely prevent it from getting
better organized, and no substantial strengthening is expected. By
Monday morning, baroclinic forcing could allow the system to
strengthen slightly before it undergoes extratropical transition or
merges with a non-tropical weather system. Alternatively, the system
could open into a trough on Sunday as its forward speed increases,
as depicted by most of the global models. Since most of those models
also show the low reforming a day later before it becomes
extratropical, the NHC forecast carries the system as a continuous
cyclone for the sake of simplicity. It should be stressed that the
rain and gusty winds associated with the system as it passes
near Bermuda overnight will be the same regardless of the state of
its circulation.


INIT 04/2100Z 31.8N 67.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 33.1N 65.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 35.3N 61.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 38.3N 56.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 41.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 44.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Zelinsky

Source: Tropical Depression Five Forecast Discussion Number 2