Issued at 1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

WTPZ41 KNHC 190839

Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 18 2021

Felicia continues to rapidly weaken tonight. The eye is no longer
visible in satellite imagery, and the low-level center is embedded
underneath a small central dense overcast. Recent SSMIS and GMI
microwave imagery reveal the hurricane no longer has a well-defined
eyewall, with a lack of deep convection noted in the southern
portion of the compact circulation. A blend of the objective
UW-CIMSS ADT and subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB
supports lowering the initial intensity to 85 kt with this advisory.

Steady to rapid weakening is expected to continue over the next
couple of days as Felicia moves over decreasing SSTs and into an
environment with increasing vertical wind shear. The combination of
this shear and entrainment of drier mid-level air into the inner
core of Felicia should disrupt the small cyclone's ability to
maintain its convective organization. The official NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one and shows steady weakening
that generally follows the IVCN consensus aid. GFS and ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery indicate that Felicia could lose all
deep, organized convection as early as Wednesday, when the
northwesterly shear strengthens to 30-40 kt over the cyclone.

Recent scatterometer and microwave data indicate Felicia has begun
turning more westward, and its initial motion is estimated to be
280/10 kt. A westward to west-southwestward motion is forecast
during the next several days as the cyclone moves around a
subtropical ridge that extends across the central Pacific. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered and the official NHC track
forecast is largely unchanged, with only a slight southward
adjustment that follows the latest multi-model consensus. Based on
this forecast, Felicia is expected to cross over into the central
Pacific basin on Tuesday night.


INIT 19/0900Z 16.4N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 16.3N 132.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 16.2N 134.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 15.8N 137.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 15.3N 140.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 14.9N 143.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 14.4N 146.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 14.0N 151.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 24/0600Z 13.5N 157.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

Source: Hurricane Felicia Forecast Discussion Number 21